A Summary of "Has China Won?"

Has China Won? was published in 2020. The Preface to the paperback version was written after its original publication, when Trump was out, and Biden was in. It states that America’s stance towards China has not altered with this change of government. America is publicly determined to stand up to China, but has no strategy or goals to do this.

Mahbubani claims to be a ‘friend to America’ and his goal is to enlighten the Americans to the fact that China’s rise is unstoppable, but this does not threaten America.

America’s focus on unnecessary wars has allowed China to triumph in the economic arena.

The contest between China and America will not be fought on the battlefield. It will be decided in the heartland of America.

The best way for America to return to its former position of prosperity is to work with China, one of the strongest and most dynamic countries in the world.

The standard of living of the American white working class must be raised or Trump, or another Trump-like figure, will get into power again. This will result in America being pulled out of multi-lateral relationships which have been America’s strength in the past.

Biden’s administration has not attempted to walk back Trump’s China policies which are shooting America in the foot, because it would be political suicide and the voters will say they are ‘soft on China.’

NB: Comments in brackets should not be attributed to Kishore Muhbubani.

George Kennan, an American strategic thinker defined a successful country as one that:

·       Knows what it wants
·       Is coping successfully with its internal issues
·       Is coping successfully with global responsibilities
·       Has spirituality

Does this description best fit America or China?

Chapter One - Introduction

Both American political parties, the Democrats and the Republicans, agree that China is a threat and there should be a trade and technological war against them. This is one of the bipartisan rare agreements.

Ten questions are posed. They are designed by Mahbubani to clarify the issues that America faces.

1. What strategic changes will America make if it is no longer the world’s dominant economic power?

2. If America has to choose one: a) to improve the lives of its 330 million citizens,

or, b) should it try to hang on to international primacy. What will be their priority?

3. Should America continue to invest in huge military spending, or should they focus on improving social services and building national infrastructure?

4. America built its strength on generosity to its allies. Now it has walked away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) while China is building alliances with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Should America go back to building global alliances, rather than ‘putting America first’?

5. America’s greatest strength is its global currency, the American dollar. Is it wise to use the dollar to impose fines on foreign countries and harsh sanctions on opponents, such as Iran, North Korea (and Russia). This is a form of ‘weaponising’ the dollar. Will this not create a strong need for an alternative global currency?

6. America’s reputation in the world has declined since 9/11 when it broke international law with impunity. Is America prepared to rebuild its reputation as a ‘normal’ nation, instead of an ‘exceptional’ nation which can do what it likes with no regard to convention, international law or the good opinion of other nations?

7. America needs to recognise the differences between their past conflict with the Soviet Union based on ideology, and the present issue with China which is based on economics. America must recognise that China is not trying to spread its political system to other countries. Is America fighting a new war with old strategies?

8. Is America’s gut reaction to China’s rising power based on an emotional fear of a country that is not white Caucasian?

9. Does America recognise that China’s government is not essentially communist in the Marxist-Leninist sense? Does America understand that China’s fundamental belief in itself rests on its long history of successful civilisation?

10. China’s strategy is long-term and based on step-by-step acquisition of assets and economic strength. China’s key strategies are the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the BRI. Is America prepared with matching long-term strategies?

To consider these questions is to think the ‘unthinkable’.

Should Americans reconsider their assumption that America system of democracy, which has really become a plutocracy is ‘good’, and that a closed communist system is ‘bad’? (A plutocracy is a form of government controlled by those with money.)

Do Americans realise that Purchasing Parity Power (PPP) in 2018 put China ahead of America, 18.6% to 15%? The importance of this needs to be understood.

*****

There are some key points that China should consider in relation to America:

In 1840 China was forced to accept opium as payment for their tea. There was 100 years of poverty and despair until Chairman Mao founded the People’s Republic of China. America has only just woken up to the rise of China, which must prepare itself against the chaos that America may inflict upon it.

·       America has never been more internally divided since the Civil War in the 1860s.
·       America has a culture that produces strong, powerful individuals. China values social harmony.
·       In the past America has accepted strong and intelligent foreign-born individuals within their country.
·       America believes in strong institutions to empower the country. In theory, America’s rule of law is stronger than the government of the day. This has given the world faith in the American dollar as a global currency. In 2020, 41.27% of all world transactions were done in American dollars.
·       America produces more Nobel Prize winners than any other country and has good tertiary education institutions.
·       America and India are the two biggest competitors to China. Their coming together should be prevented if possible.
·       There is great trust between the five Anglo-Saxon countries that make up the Five Eyes: America, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the UK.
·       Americans have a zero-sum mentality. For example, if China steps up naval deployments in the South China Sea, the US Navy will increase their presence in this area.
·       The populations of America and China make up 25% of the world population. The rest of the world will view any extreme or irrational measures taken by America or China with little tolerance.

Chapter Two – China’s Biggest Mistake

China has alienated much of the American business community.

Negative perceptions include a lack of transparency in the regulatory environment, little intellectual property protection, lack of reciprocity in cross-border investment. This is in spite of the fact that Washington’s export economy to China, at the state, country, and city levels in 2015 supported 83,800 jobs and received $511 billion in Chinese investment since 2000.

These problems arose due to:

·       the relative political autonomy of provincial and city chiefs in China,
·       the pride of the Chinese after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis,
·       and the weak central leadership from 2003 until 2013, under Hu Jintao.

In 2001 China joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO). At that time its per capita income was US$2,900 in PPP. It negotiated entry to the WTO as a developing country. For nearly 20 years China retained its status as a ‘developing country’ even though its GDP rose from US$1.2 trillion in 2000 to US$11.1 trillion in 2015. During this time China’s economy went up from the sixth largest in the world to the second largest. However, China continued to retain joint venture requirements and ownership limits, used technical standards, subsidies, licensing procedures and regulations as non-tariff barriers to restrict trade and investment.

For many years China had a self-sufficient Middle Kingdom mentality that it did not need to be opened up to the world. When it did open up, it prospered. Does it intend to return to its Middle Kingdom mentality, or should it open up to a greater degree?

China trades with over a hundred more countries than does America. China is increasing its importance as a market, both as a supplier and provider of capital. Trump and many other Americans believe that to slow the progress of China they should decouple China and America. This will also serve to decouple America from the world.

Single high-level directives in China do not always effectively trickle down to a lower provincial level. It might be more effective for a national agency to manage foreign investments in China, rather than leaving it to individual provinces and cities. They should also seek investment from all the states in America.

Whichever country supports globalisation will win. Self-isolating will bring about the downfall of any economy.

Chapter Three – America’s Biggest Strategic Mistake

China has definitely won the first round in its geopolitical contest with America. Trump plunged America into a trade and technology war with no strategy of how to win, thus, diminishing America’s standing in the world. The assault on Huawei was a massive mistake. Trump did succeed in dividing and polarising America, but he cannot take all the blame. However, walking away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) alienated allies such as Canada, Mexico, the EU, Japan, Indian and Vietnam.

Trump imposed a number of 25% tariffs on China in 2018. This severely undermined many American companies that relied on these imports for their business. Trump’s economic knowledge was so limited that he could not comprehend that these tariffs were detrimental to American companies, not China. Trade deficits are not the ‘fault’ of the Chinese. They are caused by the fact that Americans spend more than they produce.

Trump famously tweeted on August 23, 2019,

“our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA.”

The world’s faith in America’s governance has severely eroded since then. Biden has not been able to re-establish the world’s trust in America. The reliance of the world on the global currency of the American dollar generates a sense of invulnerability, but it is also America’s Achilles heel. To date, it has ensured that Americans can live beyond their means. The US Government spends more money than it collects. America imports more goods than it exports. America funds its deficit by printing more dollars, costing them only the price of the paper and the printing. (This has resulted in high inflation not, only in America, but around the world.)

The American Dollar as the Global Currency

Through printing the dollar America has for a long time funded its lifestyle well beyond its means. The world’s trust in the American dollar is a source of the country’s power and prosperity.

America has recently begun ‘weaponising’ the dollar to act against countries that they perceive as enemies. In 2012, the British bank, Standard Chartered, was fined $340 million because it used American dollars to finance a trade transaction with Iran. As a British bank this institution had not broken any British laws, nor had it violated any UN resolutions, but America used their power to extort money from them. In 2015 BNP Paribas SA was ‘fined’ $8.9 billion by America. (It could be argued that America promoted the proxy war between the Ukraine and Russia in order to bring down the Russian economy and facilitate regime change by imposing financial sanctions due to American control of the IMF.)

When Trump caused America to walk away from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement on July 14, 2015, America broke international law. Not only did it break the UN Security Council Resolution 2231, it announced that it would place sanctions against any country that dealt with Iran. To solve the legal dilemma France, Germany and the UK set up another unit of currency, INSTEX. This was an alternative to the US-based dollar system. This is a small, but significant, wedge against the power of the American dollar as the global currency.

There is no doubt that an alternative unit of currency could be developed. Block chain technologies are an interesting possibility. In August, 2019, China announced that it the Public Bank of China (PBOC) was close to issuing its own cryptocurrency. This would not be ‘decentralised’ as is Bitcoin and other such cryptocurrencies, but would be controlled by PBOC. Such a currency would evade American sanctions. Presently, Alibaba has developed Alipay and Tencent has developed WeChat Pay. These are national currencies but there is no reason why they could not be used internationally in the future.

If Americans can no longer pay China for goods with the American dollar that they print continuously, they will be at a distinct disadvantage. Americans will no longer be able to live beyond their means, as they do at the moment.

The Americans should consider that they will remain the number one economic power in the world? They need to entertain the notion that they might slip down to number two.

In 2003 Bill Clinton, after he had finished his term in office, suggested that America will not remain number one.

America also believes that it is inherently virtuous, both domestically and internationally. Many people in other countries do not believe this.

Chapter Four – Is China Expansionist?

It is possible that China may become the greatest world power, without being expansionist. It will not necessarily behave belligerently and aggressively towards other countries.

Western Media Reporting and Misconceptions

China has been accused of ‘breaking its promises’, especially with regard to expanding their territory. Xi told Obama that he promised that China did “not intend to pursue militarisation’ on its seven China-made islands in the South China Sea.” Instead of America supporting the implementation of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, signed by China and all ten Association of Southeast Asian Neighbours (ASEAN) members, which include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. America stepped up its US naval patrols, with the result that China proceeded to militarise. The Western media reported that China had undertaken not to pursue militarisation, and then they did. They did not report on the behaviour of the US Navy that provoked the situation.

To answer the original question of this chapter, Is China Expansionist? there are a number of important points to be made:

·       Over the past 2,000 years China has regularly been the strongest civilisation in Europe and Asia.
·       China did not conquer territories beyond its borders as the European countries did.
·       Before European ships went out to conquer the world, China’s ships, which were bigger, sailed far and wide but did not seek to invade and conquer other countries.
·       The Han Chinese people are agrarian, relatively peaceful and not militaristic.
·       The Chinese culture reveres scholars rather than soldiers, in contrast to American culture which always takes the first option of a militaristic approach.
·       Winning victories without fighting is considered far better than to win battles in China.
·       The Chinese do not wish to force their culture on others. They believe that only the Chinese can be Chinese.
·       China has no wish to get involved in military conflicts that are not in their national interest, unlike the Americans who believe that they are morally superior. throughout the world and think that they have the right to involve themselves in countries that are nothing to do with them. The American also make huge sums selling weapons and military equipment to other countries, so promoting warfare is in their financial interest.
·       The Chinese are genuinely puzzled that American resources are drained away in pointless Middle Eastern conflicts while the poor in America continue to become poorer.
·       Americans on either side of the deep divide that now exists within their country cannot recognise that China is not a military threat.

The Importance of Taiwan

Taiwan is a very important issue in the relationship between China and America. China will never give up its claim to Taiwan.

A joint communique in 1972 stated on the US side: “The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan strait maintain that there is but one China and that Taiwan is but a part of China. The Unites States government had not challenged that position. It reaffirmed its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves.”

(Since this book has been published the Americans have gone back on their statement. They now say that ‘acknowledge’ does mean that they ‘agree with’.)

China’s claims on Taiwan are by no means expansionist.

The question that arises is does the United States believe that they are bound by legal agreements. However, since 9/11 America has consistently broken international agreements and international treaties.

John Bolton went on record to state: “It is a big mistake for us to grant any validity to international law even when it may seem in our short-term interest to do so—because, over the long term, the goal of those who believe that international law really means anything are those who want to constrict the United States.”

Another joint communique in 1982: “The United States does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, in either qualitative or quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading over a period of time, to a final resolution.”

(The United States did not reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan.)

The other major issue between the United States and China is the South China Sea.

America routinely sails it naval vessels twelve miles off Chinese shores. Chinese vessels do not carry out routine manoeuvres twelve miles off the shore of the United States. America justifies its provocative patrols saying that it is protecting “freedom of navigation on the high seas”.

More Chinese products travel across international waters than do American products. Thus, the free traversing of global maritime routes is favourable to the Chinese in greater measure, than to the Americans.

China has reclaimed various low-water reefs and rocks off their shores. China has only 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands, and another 8 in the Spratlys. In comparison, Vietnam occupies at least 49 outposts across 27 features.

China has claimed territorial waters up to 12 miles around these newly-constructed features. According to the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea, (UNCLOS), such territorial waters cannot be claimed.

Chapter Five - Can America Make U-Turns?

Logic and common sense do not trump money in American politics. American decisions have become rigid and inflexible. Military conflict is the strategy of first resort. Although it would be better for America to direct some of its resources, that currently go toward military spending, on R&D (Research and Development) in science and technology, America spends 50% of the total world defence budget. Much of this is down to the lobbying system by defense contractors, a key feature of the American form of ‘democracy’. America cannot break free from an endless cycle of huge increases in defence spending.

In contrast, China makes rational, and long-term decisions on defence spending. The Chinese government is not influenced by self-interested private companies, as is the American government.

America and Military Conflicts

A pertinent example of this was America’s presence in Afghanistan. It did not involve any realistic diplomatic strategy to resolve the conflict in that country. Trillions of dollars were spent and it was a complete failure. The American invasion of Iraq in 2003 was against international law, or any rational reason, and again, trillions of dollars were spent.

The Cold War ended in 1989, and the USSR collapsed in 1991. At that time, the US was the most powerful country on earth. But since then, the US has become involved overtly, and covertly, in hundreds of other conflicts in foreign countries. It has destabilised much of the Middle East, which has been detrimental to the citizens of those countries. America continues to intervene in the domestic politics of Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Somalia for no good reason. One of the major reasons for this intervention was that America needed the oil of the Middle East, but now America exports oil.

American policymakers played a major role in creating a crisis between Ukraine and Russia, and this is not in America’s interest, or the Ukraine’s interest. (Has China Won? was published before Russia moved into the Ukraine.)

The Financial Motives Behind Think Tanks and Wars

America spends much more money on ‘think tanks’ than any other country. Theoretically, these think tanks should be engaged in devising intelligent strategies. The think tanks are very competitive with each other. Many of them are situated within national security agencies such as the NSC, CIA, FBI, and NSA. Such institutions have created a ‘strategic thinking’ industry. The funding of these think tanks relies on America’s continued involvement in generating conflicts in foreign countries. There is a symbiotic relationship between the think tanks and the lobbies of private defense companies, that profit from selling arms. Exaggerating foreign ‘threats’ is more profitable for the funding of think tanks, compared to downplaying threats.

The Chinese economy benefits from America’s energy and money spent on conflicts generated in foreign countries. While America focuses on international conflicts, China’s economy has grown exponentially developing industries, products for global trade and improving the living standards of its citizens.

One justification of America’s meddling in the affairs of other countries is that otherwise the ‘world would descend in chaos.’ Is this not an insult to the seven billion people who live outside America?

The Downfall of American Diplomacy

Common sense suggests that diplomacy is a far more effective, and cheaper tool, than military power. America needs promising intelligent highly-educated young people to pursue diplomatic careers. However, ambassadorships are now appointed to people who have donated a great deal of money to political campaigns. Thus, there is no effective professional corps of diplomats who are practised in the art. Most diplomats receive a set of reasonable and intelligent instructions from their countries and they negotiate within those parameters. American diplomats spend 90% of the time negotiating with a range of agencies in Washington, DC in order to gain an understanding of the position from which they must attempt to negotiate. Poor leadership from a number of secretaries of state, such as Rex Tillerson and Mike Pompeo, have curtailed the diplomatic power of those attempting to negotiate with the diplomats of other countries.

There are five points that the Americans need to consider:

1) China has four times more population than the US. It is not ruled by an anachronistic communist party, and has the oldest continuous civilisation in the world.

2) The Chinese government is not interested in propagating its system of government to the rest of the world. Its goal is to revive Chinese prosperity and advance its civilisation. The Chinese do not think that anyone who is not Chinese could become Chinese.

3) Future conflicts will be based on intellectual resources rather than money. China’s R&D budgets continue to increase. The US’s R&D budget is declining. Within 10 years, China will be the world’s most advanced in technology.

4) American society is now deeply divided along political lines, (and also racial lines). The ruling elite exercises much more power than the ordinary people. Whichever ruling elite is voted in makes no difference.

5) America no longer has the moral capacity to inspire the rest of the world.

Chapter 6 – Should China Become Democratic?

On 11th March, 2018 the National People’s Congress in China voted to no longer limit the time of office of the presidency. It was said, in other countries, that this was a return to the horror of Maoist authoritarianism. It went against the strongly-held, but mistaken belief, that China was moving towards further democratisation. The Americans (projecting their own values) assumed that Xi Jinping was seeking personal power. They did not consider that the twin curses of any country were corruption and factionalism, and it was for this reason that the decision was made.

Xi was determined to maintain strong central control for the benefit of China. He is determined to steer the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) away from liberalisation, which had brought about the destruction of the USSR.

Xi managed to keep China on course with a strategy of globalisation, which he believes is the correct way forward. America, especially under Trump, is fast returning to nationalism. Nationalistic politics have leaders that are interventionist and imperialistic. Xi is restrained and non-interventionist.

Chinese System Based on Meritocracy

The CCP is a meritocratic system that promotes the best and the brightest to high levels. This system has provided much improvement for all Chinese citizens. Most of China’s neighbours would prefer that China be led by a restrained and conservative leader, such as Xi, than a Chinese version of Trump. (American politicians are not highly intelligent or well-educated, with the exception of Obama and Clinton, but rather figures that project some brand of populist appeal.)

Climate Change

In December 2015 Obama and Xi signed the Paris Agreement to address the issues of climate change. Trump withdrew from the agreement. Although this meant that China could also withdraw from the agreement, they did not. Instead, they have been the first country to proclaim the development of an ‘ecological civilisation’. They are prioritising pollution reduction, good use of natural resources, food security, and building sustainability. Such advances are put into practice with issuing compensation guidelines for environmental damage, stronger environmental law, greater development of clean energy production, creating national parks, and protecting rivers.

China does not seek to intervene in the domestic affairs of other countries. It is one of the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council. It is the only permanent member that has not engaged in any foreign wars away from its borders since WWII. However, the other 4 members America, Russia, the UK and France have all done so.

China and Public Protests

The West has been told that the struggle in Hong Kong was between ‘freedom fighters’ and the repressive Chinese government. In fact, it was between the homeless working classes and the elite in Hong Kong who have vested interests in real estate, who influenced Beijing, telling them that a massive housing program was not necessary. They did this in order to maintain high housing prices in Hong Kong. China exercised restraint in the face of protests in Hong Kong.

There is only one political party in China, the CCP. With the burgeoning middle classes, 4% in 2000, growing to 68% in 2012, there might have been greater demand for political participation. However, there is an implicit social contract between the Chinese people and the government, that as long as there is economic growth with improvement in living conditions, the rule of the CCP will be accepted. Although they do not have a great deal of political freedom Chinese individuals do have the freedom to choose where they live, study, seek employment and also, travel overseas. 134 million Chinese people vacation overseas and they all return to China. In 2015 and 2016, 351,000 Chinese students attended American universities. In 2016-2017, 544,500 Chinese students studied abroad.

Chinese people value social harmony and order. If the CCP deliver these conditions, then the Chinese do not clamour for individual freedom.

Chinese Social Credit System

A social credit system was introduced by the Chinese government in 2014. This was a form of social trust with 4 segments; government trust, commercial credit, social trust and judicial trust. This system was criticised by the West as it was perceived as a form of authoritarianism in which the state would have total control over their citizens. However, it became apparent that Chinese citizens liked this idea as it gave them knowledge of who to trust in their social and economic transactions. They like law and order, it gives them a feeling of security.

China has been described as a closed society with an open mind. America and India are open societies with closed minds. American analyses of society are black and white, open or closed, democratic or totalitarian, liberal or authoritarian. However, China’s thinkers perceive complexity and acknowledge contradictions.

One of the reasons why the CCP maintains control is that it is comprised of the most intelligent people in the nation. In many other countries the rulers are not appointed through meritocracy. The Chinese bureaucracy is also responsive and accountable. It could most accurately be described as a unique hybrid system, autocracy with democratic characteristics. It has recreated a highly adaptive capitalistic machine from an ossified communist bureaucracy. It has instituted accountability, competition and partial limits on power. It has been vigilant in publicly rooting out corruption.

The educated minds of the Chinese are supple and flexible, particularly compared with an American constitutionalist who believes the Supreme Court should consider the Constitution of 1776 as immutable. This is a form of originalism that does not take into account the vast number of changes in the nature of modern life. (The right to bear arms is in the Constitution. Perhaps, the interpretation should be that Americans can bear arms, but only arms that were used at the time that the Constitution was written. This would solve the problem of Americans, not subject to background checks, brandishing automatics.)

There are a large number of protests that take place in China. Upon closer examination, it can be seen that these are small protests consisting of an average of 30 people in the provinces. The purpose of such protests is to draw the attention of central government which could intervene with local government that may not engage in best practice.

Democracy is a Means not an End

America proclaims that it wishes to promote democracy in China. It should be noted that America does not promote democracy in all countries with which it is involved, such as Saudi Arabia or Egypt. So, why does it push this idea so vigorously for China? Is it because America believes that ‘democracy’ allows a nation to thrive and prosper and is a force for good wherever it is practised?

Does America want China to thrive and prosper and overtake the American economy? This would make China an even bigger rival than it already is.

If one recognises that any change or transition is destablising and fraught with difficulties, then perhaps America, in fact, wishes to destabilise and weaken China. In that way America could retain its primacy. This would make America’s declaration that they wish China to be democratic Machiavellian in the extreme. (This was recently exemplified by Nancy Pelosi’s war-mongering visit to Taiwan. Although, it may be that her visit was also related to her family’s business which has significant stakes in Chinese technological companies.)

Xi has promoted economic prosperity and social stability to China. He is thoughtful and well-educated in philosophy. He does not send wild tweets or encourage law-breaking.

Chapter Seven – The Assumption of Virtue

America has a mental block when it comes to assessing China in relation to itself. America assumes that America is the most virtuous country in the world. This notion is deeply embedded in American consciousness. However, it is not based on reality.

American leaders constantly tout the idea that America is ‘the leader of the free world’. They believe that they are worthy of universal admiration. This is based on the idea of America’s ‘exceptionalism’. This is not a view shared by many people in other countries.

Looking at cold, hard statistics – America is the only country where the bottom 50% of their population’s economic status has declined over the 30-year period, 1980-2010.

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A very well-known essay on this subject by Stephen Walt is included in the Appendix of Has China Won? A summary of the main points of this essay is included here:

Barack Obama upset the apple cart when he said that he believed in American exceptionalism, but he also believed in “British exceptionalism” and “Greek exceptionalism”. He said that these were just forms of ‘patriotic chest-thumping.’

Americans are blind to the ways in which they are a lot like everyone else in the world. Americans do not understand how irritating this form of ‘self-praise’ is to other people in the world. (An old saying: self-praise is no recommendation.)

Myth 1: There is something exceptional about America’s exceptionalism

Most great powers believed that they were superior to other powers in their time. The British spoke of ‘the white man’s burden’, French colonialists cited ‘la mission civilisatrice’, even the USSR believed that they were establishing a socialist utopia on earth.

The cliché of ‘American exceptionalism’ is a familiar old song that has been chanted by many other countries in relation to their own ‘exceptionalism’.

Myth 2: The United States Behaves Better Than Other Nations Do.

America believes that it is superior because it is uniquely virtuous, embraces peace, promotes liberty, respects human rights, and maintains the rule of law.

America fought many wars, starting quite a few:

1899 – 1902, conquest of the Philipines, killing 200,000-400,000 mostly civilians.

WWII – America and its allies indulged in aerial bombing of Germany and Japan killing at least 635,000 civilians. General Curtis LeMay said “If the US lost the war, we would be prosecuted as war criminals.”

The Indochina War – US dropped 6 million tons of bombs, including napalm and Agent Orange, responsible for the death of at least 1 million civilians.

US-backed Contra war in Nicaragua – killed 30,000 Nicaraguans

Over the past three decades America has been responsible for the killing of at least 250,000 Muslims, including 100,000 civilians during the invasion and occupation of Iraq.

If a foreign country did this to America, they would think it was utterly reprehensible and unforgivable. However, they think that it was alright for them to have done it to foreigners. And still Americans cannot understand why a large proportion of the rest of the world hates them.

In human rights the US’s record is abysmal. George W Bush’s reliance on torture such as water boarding and preventative detention (Guantanamo) and Obama’s decision to retain these methods, does not reflect well on America’s compliance with international law or upholding of human rights.

Myth 3: America’s Success is Due to its Special Genius.

The US did enjoy some remarkable success, especially after World War II. Many Americans believe this was because of the Founding Fathers, the Constitution, and the hard work of the American people. The ‘melting pot’ of the immigrants who flooded into America certainly worked hard and such people are known for their intelligence and creativity, as they leave home to seek a better future.

However, a lot of America’s success could be down to simple luck. The continent has many natural resources and good rivers that traverse the country. The native population were susceptible to European diseases and died. The European great powers were involved in two major world wars which weakened them.

Myth 4: The US is Responsible for Most of the Good in the World

America credits itself with the positive achievement of spreading democracy and a liberal world order. Much has been written and spoken about this. Another idea that has been widely touted is that America won WWII. In fact, it was the Soviet Union who played the major part in the victory of the Allies (A fact that Americans have conveniently forgotten). NATO played a part in the rebuilding of Europe after the war, but so did the European citizens. (NATO has grown exponentially, mainly funded by the US, and has been used as an aggressive force, rather than merely defensive which was its original purpose. As this publication is uploaded it has been announced that they are moving into the Pacific region.)

It could also be argued that the ideas of ‘liberalism’ have their roots in the Enlightenment. As far as the abolition of slavery and the promulgation of women’s rights, America was far behind in these social movements. It took a civil war for America to stop using slave labour to promote their own money-making schemes. (The divide between blacks and whites has its roots in America’s recent history.)

On the negative side of the ledger, America has been the biggest producer of greenhouse gases in the world, and the principal cause of climate change that is now sweeping the earth. They stood on the wrong side of apartheid in South Africa. They were supporters of Sadam Hussein when he rose to power. America’s one-sided policies have sustained the brutal occupation of the Israelis in Palestine.

Myth 5: God is on Our Side

Otto van Bismark said, “God has a special providence for fools, drunks, and Americans.” America enjoys the type of hubris that helped to bring down Ancient Athens, Napoleonic France, imperial Japan, and many other countries that thought they enjoyed the favour of the Divine Powers. There have already been some huge disasters in America: the negative results of a decade of ill-advised tax cuts, the financial meltdown caused by greed and corruption on Wall Street, and two costly and unsuccessful wars. (The recent January 6th attempted insurrection is an indication of how far America has fallen from its pedestal of God’s chosen ones. Patriotic fervour gone mad.)

The US pursues its own interests, like many other powers have done, and convincing itself that it is ‘different’ and ‘better’ than the rest, is merely part of the course.

*****

The Economic Situation of the American Population

The stagnation of income of the bottom 50% of the American population has resulted in a ‘sea of despair’. Poor economic situations compound over time with intergenerational family dysfunction, social isolation, addiction, obesity and other pathologies. Social and financial inequality in America has grown exponentially. Its society is now similar to feudal Europe. The lower tranche of Americans are the commoners, the higher echelons which were once the church and the aristocracy, are now the members of the political and financial elite. There has been a dramatic fall in the living standards of the bottom 60% of Americans who now live in poverty. Those with the greater financial power control the course of public debate. They have purchased their political power. In January 2010 the Supreme Court ruled that corporations and unions could spend unlimited money on electioneering for individual candidates. This has been a major step in America becoming a plutocracy. They legalised a form of corrupt bribery.

America is governed by funders not voters

The US Congress is not controlled by the voters. It is controlled by the funders. Many Americas have not noticed how the value of their votes has diminished to almost nothing. There is a faint stirring of unrest that somehow the system has become rigged in favour of the rich, but in the main, Americans are not sufficiently educated to understand it.

The same type of political power is wielded in third-world countries. However, it is recognised as corrupt power and the ordinary people recognise it. In America, such power wielded by those with money is legal.

The myth of equal opportunity in America means that most Americans do not resent billionaires. These individuals give them hope that they too could get rich. In reality, the chance of someone in America progressing from the bottom 10% to the top 10% are extremely low. Lower than any other advanced society in the world.

There is still a yawning gap between the rich and the poor in China. However, the possibility of social mobility in China is much higher, than in America. Poor people do have the opportunity to improve their own personal social and financial positions, through education and the way the business world is structured which facilitates new start-ups.

An interesting example of this is gun control. Polls have shown that 92% of the American population would welcome meaningful gun control. 62% support a ban on high-capacity magazines. However, any member of congress who votes for gun control will find that their political opponents will be funded massively in the next election. (Americans might like to consider the benefits of a referendum on such a matter. In that way, every voting individual in America can confidentially vote for their own opinion. This would truly be democratic.)

In reality, the Americans have as little chance to change their government as the Chinese. However, the Americans continue to cherish a false vision of their own freedom. They have unknowingly discarded ‘equality’ and have now only a form of ‘freedom’.

The central premise of the book Has China Won? regards the relative strengths and weaknesses of the American and Chinese political systems. If it were a contest between a flexible and democratic system and a rigid communist party state, then America would win hands down. However, if it is a contest between a rigid and inflexible plutocracy and a flexible, meritocratic political system, then China will undoubtedly win.

Chapter Eight – How Will Other Countries Choose?

There are 193 countries in the world. Two are America and China. The other 191 countries are preparing for the roller-coaster ride as America and China compete in a geopolitical contest. The trade war was the first skirmish. (The situation in Taiwan and the expansion of NATO will probably bring matters to a head.)

When Trump walked away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and its free trade agreements, the remaining eleven members continued on, renaming it the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnerships (CPTPP). In July 2019 the EU and Mercosur announced an in-principle trade agreement. The African countries have continued with their African Continental Free Trade agreement (AfCTFA) in May 2019. There is another group being formed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which involves the 10 countries of ASEAN and Australia, New Zealand, China, and South Korea. China signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with ASEAN in 2001.

Other countries have been working on their own strategies and many will probably resist being pressured to choose either America or China. The rest of the world is working together. As America moves towards de-coupling from China, they will also de-couple from the rest of the world. (The way that America pressurised other countries to pick a side, either Russia or Ukraine, is a good example of the way America operates.)

To explore this idea in more detail, Australia, the European Union, Japan and India’s relationships with China are considered.

Australia’s Relationship with China and America

In the coming geopolitical conflict, Australia will find itself in a very difficult position. In the past it has enthusiastically supported America’s policies and wars. They sent (conscripted) troops to the Vietnam War. They were also America’s most loyal ally in the Cold War. However, Australia’s economy is firmly bound to China. In 2018, its trade with China was worth $AU174 billion compared to its trade with the US, $AU44 billion. Australia cannot afford to see China as a strategic competitor, as America does.

There is also an identity problem. Australia, and New Zealand, primarily see themselves as Western countries. This could result in it feeling very isolated in the Asian end of the world. (Although, many Asians have emigrated to Australia and NZ and established themselves in these countries.)

Leading Australians have said that their nation should not blindly follow American policies and interests. (Deputy Prime Minister, Penny Wong and Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese’s recent pronouncements on the Taiwan issue indicate that they have not fully heeded these voices.) Australian leaders need to comprehend the reality of the shifting geopolitical forces.

The EU and China and America

It is apparent that Americans assume that the EU will fall in with its views and policies. Pompeo, when he was Secretary of State under the Trump regime, said that if other countries adopted Huawei technology, then America could no longer have an embassy or a military outpost in their countries. (No one could say that the Americans have any subtlety in the way that they attempt to control the rest of the world!)

The Geography of Geopolitics

The geography of the world needs to be taken into account when considering geopolitical issues. Western Europe was on the doorstep of the USSR, and therefore was willing to sign up to the Cold War. The links between Europe and America were underpinned by a common Judeo-Christian heritage and Greco-Roman cultural origins.

America has been blessed with an advantageous geographical position. The masses of Eurasia and Africa are separated from them by two large oceans. The current biggest geopolitical threat for Europe is Africa. Presently, Africa’s population is double that of the EU. By 2100, Africa’s population will grow ten times larger. In 2015 – 2017, there was a wave of migration from Africa and the Middle East to Western Europe. This has resulted in a surge of European populist (right-wing) political parties. If living conditions do not improve in Africa then there will be many Africans attempting to seek a better life in Europe. This suggests that enabling social and economic development in Africa would be a good thing. However, if America’s European allies decide to work with China to invest in Africa’s future, then America will oppose it.

Japan and China and America

The country with the most troubled relationship with China is Japan. For 50 years Japan has inflicted multiple humiliations on China. In 1895, they defeated China in the Sino-Japanese War. This is when they annexed Taiwan. The Japanese military occupation of China from 1937 – 1945 was brutal, including the infamous Nanjing Massacre.

However, the last 50 years should be put in perspective. Japan and China have been close neighbours and have a 2,000-year relationship. In fact, the Japanese culture is derived of Chinese scripts, religious tendencies, forms of art, ceramics, pottery, and Confucian philosophy.

A great number of Chinese regularly visit Japan. It is possible that they see in Japanese culture future potential for their own culture.

Japan has adopted an electoral system similar to that of America. However, strikingly, they have remained a one-party state for over 50 years. A closer symbiotic relationship between Japan and China might mean that China adopts a similar model of government. But this will not happen through external pressure, such as the crude methods adopted by America.

India and China and America

India and China have many cultural dissimilarities. Indian politicians are outspoken and Chinese political leaders are masters of the understatement. However, Buddhism which originated in India, has had a major impact on China.

The Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, made public efforts to meet both Trump and Xi. Although Modi understands the value of pragmatism, his own government and the opposition party do not. For example, India refused to participate in the BRI because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor which goes through Kashmir contested territory. In late 2019, India announced it would not join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), even though it had been actively negotiating for membership for some time prior.

Trump was publicly disrespectful of India. He made fun of Modi’s ‘boasting’ that India had donated a library to Afghanistan. Trump scoffed that no one in Afghanistan would use the library. (Trump’s literacy skills are extremely limited.) Trump was also reported to mimic Narendra Modi’s accent.

This is indicative of the larger problem that Western scholars do not recognise the sophisticated and ancient civilisation of India.

India has also been a democracy for many years. The American media broadcasts a great deal about the poverty in India. The Indian community in America has achieved a great deal of success. Indian migrants represent high achieving segments of American society. Many signature American companies are run by ethnic Indians, e.g. Google (Sundar Picha), Microsoft (Satya Nadella), PepsiCo (Indra Nooryi), Adobe (Shantanu Narayen), Nokia (Rajeev Suri), and Mastercard (Ajay Banga), and there are many others.

America’s Failure to Recognise the Importance of Southeast Asia

After America withdrew ignominiously in 1975 from Vietnam after their unsuccessful war there, they assumed that the five non-communist countries in Southeast Asia (the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand) would ‘fall like dominoes’ and become communist. The opposite happened, within 30 years, the three communist countries joined ASEAN (Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam). ASEAN is now one of the most promising economic regions. It is predicted by 1930 they will be the fourth largest economy in the world. America pays no attention to ASEAN and are missing out on important opportunities there. It may be because they do not want to remember their unsuccessful military attempt to convert Vietnam to democracy. However, America’s neglect of this region has probably been beneficial as Southeast Asia lives peacefully in spite of the diversity of religions.

Mahbubani’s Predictions about an Alliance between Russia and America

In Has China Won? Kishore Mahbubani predicts that in the future Russia will emerge as a key ally to America. Russia has the longest border with China. China’s economy is $12.2 trillion, 7.75 times larger than Russia’s ($1.6 trillion). Even though Russia has far more nuclear weapons, they will need an ally to balance a neighbour that is much larger in size and influence, obviously America. There are some uncomfortable issues that America needs to face in order to achieve this. After the Cold War, American leaders made explicit and implicit promises that they would not expand NATO eastward to threaten Russia. This expansion might appear to be an American sinister plot to permanently eliminate Russia as a geopolitical competitor. In order for America to re-establish good relations with Russia, they would need to make a cold, hard-headed evaluation of the recent past. However, if emotions rule, as does seem to happen often in America, and reason does not assert itself this will not happen. (The proxy-war between America and Russia in the Ukraine demonstrate that Mahbubani’s assessment of America’s ability to honestly confront their past mistakes and make rational decisions was unrealistically optimistic.)

America and China are going to need to play a more sophisticated game to win over other countries. (Perhaps America more than China!)

Chapter Nine – A Paradoxical Conclusion

China alienated America’s business community. America needs a foreign scapegoat to explain their domestic and socioeconomic problems. America is treating China as an enemy. This prevents American politicians for advocating a change in attitude. America does not understand that China has no missionary impulse to take over the world and make everyone Chinese. China is more adept at dealing with a diverse world than America. America continues to regard China as an existential threat.

When America issued a warrant of arrest for the Chief Financial Officer of Huawei, Meng Wanzhou, they gave the world an example of their double standards. When American companies break laws the US penalises the companies, not senior executives.

China pressured Cambodia to veto a joint ASEAN statement in 2012 that mentioned the South China Sea. This gave America the opportunity to say that China bullies its neighbours.

The Role of Personalities and Emotions in International Affairs

Geopolitical issues are decided by the individuals and the personalities of these individuals often have a major bearing upon the nature of decisions. The 1970s was a high point of Sino-American relations and this was achieved by four individuals: Richard Nixon, Henry Kissinger, Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai. In 1989 after Tiananmen Square, George H W Bush and Deng Xiaoping worked together to prevent a severe downturn in the relationship. In contrast, George H W Bush and Hu Jintao did not enjoy a good relationship. Nor did Hilary Clinton when she was Secretary of State, get on well with her Chinese counterparts. In 2018, Vice President Mike Pence made a nasty condescending speech about China and then in 2019 he made a second speech saying that many of Beijing’s policies were harmful to America, accusing China of military expansionism (coming from the Americans this has to be a breath-taking example of hypocrisy!), repressing people who have religious faith, a surveillance state, currency manipulation (this coming from a country which prints trillions of dollars!), forced technology transfer and industrial subsidies. Such a strident speech served to worsen American-Chinese relations.

As well as personalities, emotions play a large part in the nature of international relations. It might have been easier for America to concede the top spot of the most powerful nation if it had been another Western nation. For example, when the UK passed the baton to the US, it was from one Anglo-Saxon nation to another. In the Western subconscious there is an inchoate fear of the ‘Yellow Peril’.

This fear of the Chinese goes back centuries when Napoleon said: “Let China sleep; when she awakes she will shake the world.” In the 13th century when the Mongols appeared at the borders of Eastern Europe. Then, they mysteriously withdrew. The Mongols were regarded as ‘lawless Ishmaelites’ and ‘satellites of Antichrist’.

Perhaps if we could go beyond personality clashes and deep-seated emotional fears and could exercise reason then it might be seen that the interests of China and America do not have to be in conflict. There is a significant difference in the way that Westerners think, in black and white, right and wrong, good and evil, which extends to an unsophisticated differentiation between the political systems of Communism and Democracy. The Eastern mind follows the dualistic lines of ying and yang, which are interdependent parts of a whole. This makes it possible to consider non-contradictions in terms of relativity, rather than right and wrong.

The central concern of each country, is, or should be, the well-being of their own citizens. Well-being is now a measurable, recognised and popular construct. It is possible it will become the standard measure of social policies. In terms of financial income, the per capita income of America is US$62,641 as much as six times greater than that of China at $9,771. However, the wellbeing of the lower 50% of Americans has deteriorated in the last several decades. At least two-thirds of households in America could not find $500 in cash for an emergency. If the $4.8 trillion in Americans spent on wars since 9/11 was distributed to the bottom 50% of the population, then each individual would receive $29,000. The American government and its strategic thinkers do not seem to comprehend the fact that their citizens, particularly the poorer 50%, would be much better of without foreign wars.

Climate Change as a Global Issue

The fact that reducing climate change should be of major concern to every person and nation on the planet of earth is so obvious, it should not need to be stated. Instead, the leaders of each nation spend their their time blaming other nations for the problem. China and India have been addressing the issue ever since America withdrew from the Paris Agreement.

Obsession with the Ideological Threat of Communism

Americans are obsessed with the perceived threat that China is trying to spread communism. They are projecting their own motive of spreading democracy. China may have encouraged communism in the 1950s and 1960s but in recent years they have not had the desire to spread their ideology, which is far from the doctrine of Marxist-Leninist communism. This American obsession has gone to the lengths of accusing China of trying to undermine their own values. Chinese leaders are realists and they would not waste time or resources on such a nonprofitable mission. On the contrary, Americans seem to believe that it is their moral obligation to overthrow all communist movements.

Human Rights

There is a fundamental contradiction in the preaching about human rights to other nations. There has been a great deal of reporting amongst Western nations about the way in which China has put a million Muslims in re-education camps in Xinjiang. Obviously, American citizens believe that they treat Muslims in a better way.

There were terror attacks in Urumqi with at least 31 deaths. Assailants in two cars ran over shoppers and set off explosions in a crowded market area. There were also knife-wielding attackers who hacked down 29 people in Kunming. The assailants were suspected of being Uighur extremists. If the reports of the re-education camps in Xinjiang are true then there are hundreds of thousands of innocent Muslim citizens in these camps. Equally, if reports are true, the America government has tortured and killed thousands of Muslim civilians since 9/11.

Torture was systematically carried out in Guantanamo Bay. Americans also sent prisoners to countries like Egypt and Syria where it is well-known that human rights are at abysmal levels. The CIA has tortured prisoners at ‘black sites’ in Europe. Recently, America has stepped up its assassination program of foreign nationals on foreign soil.

Perhaps, China and America should collaborate in their efforts to stamp out terrorism. There are several Islamic nations that are successful and relatively peaceful, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. As these moderate Muslim societies prosper, they may be able to influence the troubled Middle East. This would be more effective than bombing and shooting them. This will cut down on human rights violations in Western countries and China. There is enough space in the world for both America and China. The question should not be who has won, China or America, but whether humanity can win.

Acronyms, Organisations and Definitions

AfCTFA - African Continental Free Trade Agreement

AIIB - Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank

ASEAN – Association of Southeast Asian Neighbours which involves 10 countries, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam

BRI – Belt and Road Initiative

Caucasian – white ethnicity

CCP – Chinese Communist Party

CIA – Central Intelligence Agency (American)

The Age of Enlightenment – an intellectual and philosophical movement that dominated Europe in the 17th and 18th centuries with global influences and effects.

EU – European Union consisting of

FBI – Federal Bureau of Investigation (American)

Five Eyes - America, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the UK.

FTA – Free Trade Agreement

GDP – gross domestic product, the main measure of a country’s economy size

INSTEX – unit of currency used when the US pulled out of the JCPOA, which meant that American dollars could not be used in specific transactions.

JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

Mercosur – an economic and political bloc consisting of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay

NSA – National Security Agency (American)

NSC – United States National Security Council

PBOC - Public Bank of China

PLA – People’s Liberation Army (of China)

Plutocracy – a government controlled by the wealthy

PPP - Purchasing Parity Power, a measurement of prices in different countries that can be compared to the absolute purchasing power of the countries’ currencies

PRC – People’s Republic of China

RCEP - Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership which involves the 10 countries of ASEAN and Australia, New Zealand, China, and South Korea.

TPP - Trans-Pacific Partnership

UN – United Nations

UNCLOS – United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

UN Security Council – made up of 5 permanent members, China, America, Russia, the UK and France

USSR – Unites Socialist Soviet Republic was made up of 15 republics: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan

WTO – World Trade Organisation

Kishore Mahbubani

The author of Has China Won? is a Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore. He spent 33 years in diplomacy and 15 years in academia, when he was the Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. In 2019 he was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He is a leading public intellectual from the Asian community. He travels extensively and lives in Singapore. His other books include Can Asians Think?, Has the West Lost It?, The New Asian Hemisphere, The Great Convergence, and Beyond the Age of Innocence.

Beyond Bitesize Books

This is the first publication of a newly-formed publishing imprint has produced. Has China Won? has been deeply influential to my thinking. I despair of the way the world is going, despite the intelligent and informed views of such people as Kishore Mahbubani. In my own small way, I want to bring such ideas to the people who do not have the inclination to read such an in-depth book. I hope that it will inspire them to go back to the original book and examine the evidence presented by Mahbubani, and the reasoning behind his ideas that back up the assertions in this summary. I have included my own thoughts in brackets.

If anyone wishes to contact me, please email beyondbitesize@hotmail.com. Any suggestions for further books to summarise will be gratefully received.

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Walt, Stephen M., “The Myth of American Exceptionalism: The Idea that the United States is Uniquely Virtuous May Be Comforting to Americans. Too Bad It Is Not True.” Foreign Policy, October, 11, 2011.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/the-myth-of-american-exceptionalism/

Washington Post, “President Trump Calls on American Companies to Cut Ties with China, Intensifying Trade War”, PennLive Patriot News, 23rd August, 2019.

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